Stubble burning cases decline but doesn’t end Delhi’s air quality woes: Analysis

From 2019 to 2023, Haryana and Punjab have seen fluctuations in fire incidents, with notable reductions observed in the last two years. In Haryana, fire counts decreased dramatically from 14,122 in 2019 to 7,959 in 2023, as per satellite data analysis.
Most fires occurred between September and December, but this period has experienced a 48% reduction in incidents over five years. Punjab mirrored this trend, with fire incidents peaking at 95,048 in 2020 before dropping to 52,722 in 2023.
The post-monsoon months remain the most fire-prone, according to a climate trends report analysing satellite data.
Delhi’s air quality has been significantly impacted by these fire incidents. On days without fires, the city’s Air Quality Index (AQI) averaged 175, classified as ‘moderate’.
However, during the stubble burning season, the AQI spiked to 233 (‘poor’), and on days when fires exceeded climatological averages, it soared to 337 (‘very poor’).
Fires in Punjab and Haryana contributed to a troubling 103-unit increase in Delhi’s AQI, highlighting the urgent need for coordinated fire management and air quality interventions across states.
Fire incidents and air quality are crucial environmental factors affecting human health, ecosystems, and regional climate.
This study utilised VIIRS S-NPP (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite – Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership) 375-meter fire data, alongside AQI data for National Capital Region (NCR) cities, covering September 1 to December 31 from 2019 to 2023.
Air quality trends in NCR cities from September to December revealed a general decline. In Agra, the number of ‘good’ AQI days plummeted by 79%, from 19 days in 2019 to just 4 days in 2023.
In Delhi, ‘very poor’ days increased by 55%, rising from 29 in 2019 to 45 in 2023. Similarly, Faridabad experienced a 43% increase in “Poor” AQI days, while Ghaziabad saw an 86% rise.
Gurugram reported a complete drop in ‘good’ AQI days and a 55% increase in ‘moderate’ days, illustrating worsening air quality across these cities.
In Haryana, fire counts from September to December varied significantly by district. Jhajjar witnessed a dramatic increase of about 365%, while Gurgaon and Mewat reported rises of 275% and 1100%, respectively. However, Karnal and Kaithal saw major decreases of approximately 86% and 78%.
Punjab experienced notable reductions in fire incidents, particularly in Gurdaspur and Muktsar, which saw declines of up to 71%. Districts like Bathinda and Faridkot recorded moderate decreases from 45% to 22%.
From 2019 to 2023, the overall fire counts in Punjab and Haryana during September to December consistently outpaced counts from January to August. Despite reductions in fire activity during the last two years, challenges remain, with fire incidents occurring year-round.
The analysis highlights a strong correlation between fire incidents in Punjab and Haryana and rising air pollution levels in Delhi. Agricultural practices such as crop residue burning introduce substantial particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) into the atmosphere, exacerbated by prevailing wind patterns that carry these pollutants to Delhi.
Key findings indicate that fire counts during September to December significantly impact Delhi’s air quality. On days without fires, Delhi’s AQI averages 175, while the baseline AQI during the stubble burning season is 233. When fire incidents exceed climatological averages, the AQI can jump to 337, underscoring the severe health risks posed by poor air quality.